Euro vs. Russian ruble stocks up, near 5-year highs
The Russian ruble rose above 64 against the dollar on Monday, briefly jumping to 62.71 against the greenback and hitting a five-year high against the euro, backed by continued sanctions on currency transactions.
The ruble is the world’s best-performing currency so far this year, although it is due to the artificial support of capital controls that Russia imposed to protect its financial sector after sending thousands of troops to Ukraine in late February.
Alexander Djiev, an analyst at Alpha Capital, said the situation in the domestic currency market had remained the same for several weeks, and the ruble continued to strengthen as foreign currency supply exceeded demand.
Russia’s current account surplus tripled to $ 95.8 billion from January to April, boosted by higher imports and lower imports, the central bank said on Monday.
“It seems that no equilibrium point has been found so far,” he said.
It is unknown at this time what he will do after leaving the post.
At 1500 GMT, the ruble was 1.5% stronger against the dollar at 63.59, the strongest since the beginning of February 2020 at 62.6250, which hit Friday.
“The current capital control measures have brought the ruble back to pre-epidemic levels,” Rossbank analysts said in a note, predicting that the ruble would move closer to 90 against the dollar by the end of the year.
“In the near future, a new FX market regulation committee may adjust these restrictions, but until then, the USD / RUB consolidation may stick to the lower limit of the 63.0-70.0 range.”
Against the euro, the ruble rose 1.6% to 66.05, hovering near its strongest level since June 2017 at 64.9425, which touched the Moscow exchange on Friday.
Moscow’s stalemate with the West and a new sanctions package are expected to punish Russia for calling it a “special military operation” in Ukraine. But their influence is cushed by export-oriented companies with foreign exchange conversions and other restrictions.
“The strength of the ruble may be moderate today, but the dollar may slowly fall to 62,” analysts at Promsvisbank said in a note.
Russian stock index jumps high.
The dollar-adjusted RTS index .IRTS rose 3% to 1,165.7 points. The ruble-based MOEX Russian index rose 2% to 2,354.1 points.
The MOEX index is likely to enter the 2,400-2,500 range this week, Promsvyazbank said.
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