The southwest monsoon is likely to hit the Kerala coast, where it will enter the subcontinent, five days before the “normal start date” of May 26, 1, private weather forecast Skymet said on Friday.
Meanwhile, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast the onset of monsoon in Kerala on May 27.
“This year, the south-west monsoon in Kerala may be earlier than usual,” the IMD said in a statement.
According to Skymet, the onset of monsoon in Kerala this year may be on May 26, with model error +/- 3 days.
IMD predicted last month that India would receive a ‘normal’ monsoon (June-September) at 99% of the benchmark long period average (LPA), with model error +/- 5%. Skymet, too, has forecast normal rainfall this year at 98% of the 50-year average, with an error margin of +/- 5%. If the forecast is true, the country will receive normal rainfall for the fourth year in a row from annual events.
According to Skymet, based on data from 1961-2019, the normal date of onset of monsoon on the Kerala coast is 1 June. “The recent cyclone Asani has been able to lock up the monsoon flow earlier than usual in the Bay of Bengal.” In Skymet’s statement.
After the onset of monsoon in late June, farmers started sowing kharif crops like paddy, coarse grains, pulses and oilseeds.
The IMD last month revised the LPA from 88.1 cm to 87 cm in the June-September 1971-2020. Increasing precipitation between 96% and 104% of LPA is considered ‘normal’.
According to Mrityunjay Mohapatra, Director General, IMD, there is a 40% chance of ‘normal’ rainfall and 26% probability of ‘less than normal’ rainfall in the coming season and 14% deficit rainfall. He added that there is a 15% chance of ‘above normal’ rainfall and 5% chance of ‘excess’ rainfall.
According to Skymet, the forecast predicts a 65% chance that the country will receive normal rainfall during the June-September period without any chance of drought.
India’s foodgrain production has increased from 297.5 million tonnes (MT) per annum in 2019-20 (July-June) to 316 MT in 2021-22, according to the second advance estimate released by the Ministry of Agriculture.
PK Joshi, former director (South Asia) at the International Food Policy Research Institute, told FEI:
Meanwhile, according to the Central Water Commission, the level of water storage in the original 140 reservoirs on Thursday was 106% of the same level as in the same period last year and an average of 128% in the last ten years.
High food grain production ensures adequate availability in the market and prevents the possibility of rising product prices.