India’s GDP growth: At present, it is prudent to estimate GDP growth at 7.8-8 percent

According to the Confederation of Indian Industries (CII), India’s annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth is expected to be 7.4 per cent to 8.2 per cent depending on global oil prices.

Responding to a question from ET, newly appointed CII President Sanjeev Bajaj said, “As far as estimates are concerned, you know, the Reserve Bank of India’s own estimates are below it. We believe we have a few quarters of strong growth. Oil is something that we do not have in the short term, nor does it have the length, intensity and negative effects of war. So at this point I’m going to be in a reasonable situation of about 7.8 to 8 percent. ”

According to a CII presentation, there are three GDP growth scenarios, the most optimistic being if oil prices reach $ 90 per barrel which would result in 8.2 per cent GDP growth for India. Under business-normal conditions, oil prices fell to $ 100 a barrel and GDP growth fell to 7.8 percent. According to the CII, the most disappointing situation is that if oil prices average $ 110 per barrel, growth will fall to 7.4 percent.

Bajaj said an immediate measure to moderate inflation could be a moderate tax on fuel products, which make up a large portion of petrol and diesel retail pump prices. “The CII will encourage central and state governments to cooperate in reducing these responsibilities,” he said.

Elaborating on his vision for the economy, Bajaj said that India has the potential to become a $ 40 trillion economy by 2047 in 100 years, with a milestone of $ 5 trillion by 2026-27 and $ 9 trillion by 2030-31.